FCM Santander case: Difference between revisions

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= Implementation of the PoMM Module in the Pilot Sites – Santander (ES) =
= Implementation of the PoMM Module in the Pilot Sites – Santander (ES) =


The primary local stakeholders actively participated in the testing of the PoMM module in Santander: Mrs Belén Domínguez, Directora General de Medio Ambiente del Ayuntamiento de Santander and Mrs Margarita Rojo, Primera teniente de alcalde y Concejala de Medio Ambiente y Servicios Técnicos del Ayuntamiento de Santander, Verónica Abascal, Directora del Servicio de AQUALIA en Santander, Marta Hernandez Zubieta: responsable departamento de redes de saneamiento. Additionally, prof. Jorge Rodriguez participated on behalf of the University of Cantabria and Mrs Andrea Camila Forero Ortiz on behalf of the partner AQUALIA.
The primary local stakeholders actively participated in the testing of the PoMM module in Santander: Mrs Margarita Rojo, Primera teniente de alcalde y Concejala de Medio Ambiente y Servicios Técnicos del Ayuntamiento de Santander and  Mrs Belén Domínguez, Directora General de Medio Ambiente del Ayuntamiento de Santander; Verónica Abascal, Directora del Servicio de AQUALIA en Santander, Marta Hernandez Zubieta: Responsable Departamento de redes de saneamiento. Additionally, prof. Jorge Rodriguez participated on behalf of the University of Cantabria and Mrs Andrea Camila Forero Ortiz on behalf of the partner AQUALIA.


Their active support was instrumental to the successful execution of this test.
Their active support was instrumental to the successful execution of this test.
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* '''Compound:''' Not applicable
* '''Compound:''' Not applicable
* '''CAS:''' Not applicable
* '''CAS:''' Not applicable
== Intermediate notes ==
=== Unity of analysis ===
The unit of analysis corresponds to the '''municipality of Santander'''. All decision-making and operational processes considered in the experiment take place within this perimeter.
The unit of analysis corresponds to the '''municipality of Santander'''. All decision-making and operational processes considered in the experiment take place within this perimeter.


Line 46: Line 41:
In this experiment, neither target contaminants nor corresponding NBS mitigation solutions were selected, because the objective is to define and explore the experimental process and path towards compliance with the new directive on urban wastewater treatment.
In this experiment, neither target contaminants nor corresponding NBS mitigation solutions were selected, because the objective is to define and explore the experimental process and path towards compliance with the new directive on urban wastewater treatment.


=== Decision process flow ===
== Decision process flow ==


The process examined is described according to the '''BPMN standard'''.
The process examined is described according to the '''BPMN standard'''.
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# Technical-political project
# Technical-political project
# Experimentation and evaluation
# Experimentation and evaluation




Line 93: Line 91:
The following variables were selected for the experiment:
The following variables were selected for the experiment:


# * Competencia de los expertos (Amplitud y especialización de los conocimientos)
# Competencia de los expertos (Amplitud y especialización de los conocimientos)
# * Numero y impacto de proyectos con participación directa de la ciudadanía
# Numero y impacto de proyectos con participación directa de la ciudadanía
# * Indicaciones para el ajuste UWWTD
# Indicaciones para el ajuste UWWTD
# * Impacto CapEx OpEx Gestor SII
# Impacto CapEx OpEx Gestor SII
# * Impacto positivo sobre la calidad del agua
# Impacto positivo sobre la calidad del agua
# * Beneficios-costes total EDAR Depuracion
# Beneficios-costes total EDAR Depuracion
# * Eficacia del proceso de concesión de permisos para SbN
# Eficacia del proceso de concesión de permisos para SbN
# * Impacto de los proyectos apruebados
# Impacto de los proyectos apruebados
# * Impacto CapEx OpEx Otros Servicios
# Impacto CapEx OpEx Otros Servicios
# * Indices de multifuncionalidad SbN inundaciones, sequías, CEs
# Indices de multifuncionalidad SbN inundaciones, sequías, CEs
# * Impacto operativo sobre Otros servicios
# Impacto operativo sobre Otros servicios
# * Nivel de cumplimiento del plan de gestión propuesto con la normativa vigente y futura
# Nivel de cumplimiento del plan de gestión propuesto con la normativa vigente y futura
# * Beneficios-costos para el municipio
# Beneficios-costos para el municipio
# * Importancia del tema escorrentía urbana CEs-SbN y UWWTD en la agenda política
# Importancia del tema escorrentía urbana CEs-SbN y UWWTD en la agenda política
# * Incremento de capacidad del sistema
# Incremento de capacidad del sistema
# * Impacto positivo en la calidad del agua vertida
# Impacto positivo en la calidad del agua vertida
# * Calidad de la colaboracion interistitucional
# Calidad de la colaboracion interistitucional
# * Cumplimiento con las políticas regionales y nacionales de MEDIO AMBIENTE y SALUD
# Cumplimiento con las políticas regionales y nacionales de MEDIO AMBIENTE y SALUD
# * Beneficios-costes total Gestor SII
# Beneficios-costes total Gestor SII
# * Nivel de correspondencia de las SbN con los mapas de zonas de riesgo
# Nivel de correspondencia de las SbN con los mapas de zonas de riesgo
# * Numero y impacto de inversiones SbN particulares autorizadas
# Numero y impacto de inversiones SbN particulares autorizadas
# * Calidad del monitoreo CEs
# Calidad del monitoreo CEs
# * Impacto positivo sobre la capacidad de carga EDAR
# Impacto positivo sobre la capacidad de carga EDAR
# * Indice de correspondencia de las SbN con los mapas de riesgo
# Indice de correspondencia de las SbN con los mapas de riesgo
# * Nivel de consenso político
# Nivel de consenso político
# * Impacto positivo sobre CSO
# Impacto positivo sobre CSO
# * Beneficios-costes total Otros Servicios
# Beneficios-costes total Otros Servicios
# * Concienciación, compromiso y apoyo de los ciudadanos y las organizaciones de la sociedad civil
# Concienciación, compromiso y apoyo de los ciudadanos y las organizaciones de la sociedad civil
# * Impacto CapEx OpEx EDAR Depuracion
# Impacto CapEx OpEx EDAR Depuracion


== Cognitive Map Information ==
== Cognitive Map Information ==
Line 219: Line 217:


This image represents the cognitive map designed for the experiment.
This image represents the cognitive map designed for the experiment.
[[File:Santander-FCMConcepts.png|center|800x800px]]
Overall, the modelling was done taking compliance with European directives (UWWTD) and economic efficiency as the ultimate goals, driven heavily by technical performance and political/social factors.
Following the challenge final purpose, the primary political observable is the concept "Indications for UWWTD adjustment". We modeled it to be strongly influenced by political consensus, institutional collaboration, regulatory compliance, and economic benefits for the municipality.
==== Key connections between entities / key drivers ====
The Importance of the topic in the political agenda is a root cause in that it triggers institutional collaboration, setting the governance process in motion.
The Positive impact on Combined Sewer Overflows (CSO) is a "power driver" as ith hase strong influence on multiple financial and operational factors. Controlling sewer overflows is the most effective technical lever in the system.
We set a distinct chain regarding Nature-Based Solutions (SbN in the Spanish translation). It flows from Risk Maps knowledge/fitness and Multifunctionality Indices → Permitting Process →Investments → System Capacity. This is because we assume that successful green infrastructure relies heavily on proper planning (maps) and bureaucratic efficiency (permits).
==== Nature of relationships (positive/negative) ====
All weights in the matrix are set positive, meaning the relationships are reinforcing. Improvements in one area (e.g., better monitoring or more consensus) lead to improvements in others.
==== Strength of relationships ====
The table "Motivation of relationships" summarises the weights given to the relationships and the reasons for the choice.
==== Feedback loops ====
With the aim of establishing the initial outline for further co-modelling work, the model was constructed in such a way as to facilitate maximum comprehensibility of causal links at the initial stage.
This has significant implications for how the system functions and how it should be interpreted:
* System stability (no "vicious" or "virtuous" cycles): feedback loops are usually the engines of dynamic systems - they cause exponential growth (positive loops) or self-correction/stability (negative loops). While this is how the "real" Santander system works, at initial stage it has been considered useful to "neutralise" the scaffold and to leave the identification of loops to next step of elaboration, possibly internal to the Santander Municipality and Aqualia and run by managers / experts of both entities.  For instance, in this model effects flow in one direction only. For example, while Political Consensus drives the UWWTD Adjustments, the adjustments themselves do not feed back to create more consensus.
* Causal flow (feed-forward). The system operates as a hierarchical chain of causality. It takes specific root causes and processes them through various technical and institutional layers to produce a final outcome. To this end the model has been designed without feedback loops, so classifying as a Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG). Indeed, the Santander case is analysed here using the PoMM laboratory as a diagnostic model / decision-support rather than a dynamic simulation.
* The "backbone" of the model is defined by long causal chains instead of loops. This allows to take into account the depth of the decision-making process. The longest chain "NBS Implementation" goes through 7 steps. This path shows how technical expertise translates into regulatory compliance.  Competence of Experts → Ensures accurate planning/Correspondence of NBS with Risk Maps → Facilitates bureaucracy/Efficacy of Permitting process → Unlocks private capital/Number & Impact of authorized NBS investments → Realizes projects/Impact of approved projects → Improves infrastructure/Increase in system capacity → Creates economic value/Cost-Benefit for Municipality → Enables final decision/Indications for UWWTD adjustment (Final step).
==== Overall system dynamics ====
Since there are no loops to sustain the system internally, the outcomes are entirely dependent on the continuous input from the root drivers. If these stop, the entire process halts:


[[File:Cognitive_map_Santander.png|center|800px|Cognitive Map Design]]
'''Political driver''': Importance of runoff/UWWTD in the political agenda.
 
'''Social driver''': Projects with direct citizen participation.
 
'''Technical driver''': Quality of monitoring (Emerging Contaminants).
 
'''Infrastructure driver''': Positive impact on CSO (Combined Sewer Overflows).


== Relationships between entities ==
== Relationships between entities ==
Line 389: Line 424:


{| class="wikitable sortable"
{| class="wikitable sortable"
! Source Concept
! Source Concept (Cause)
! Target Concept
! Target Concept (Effect)
! Reasoning
! Reasoning (Why)
|-
|-
| Beneficios-costes total EDAR Depuracion
| Beneficios-costes total EDAR Depuracion (Total Cost Benefit: WWTP)
| Beneficios-costos para el municipio
| Beneficios-costos para el municipio (Municipality Cost-Benefit)
| The economic efficiency of the WWTP directly contributes to the overall economic benefit of the municipality.
| The economic efficiency of the WWTP directly contributes to the overall economic benefit of the municipality.
|-
|-
| Beneficios-costes total Gestor SII
| Beneficios-costes total Gestor SII (Total Cost-Benefit: Sewer Manager)
| Beneficios-costos para el municipio
| Beneficios-costos para el municipio
| The efficiency of the sewer infrastructure manager contributes strongly to the municipality's economic balance.
| The efficiency of the sewer infrastructure manager contributes strongly to the municipality's economic balance.
|-
|-
| Beneficios-costos para el municipio
| Beneficios-costos para el municipio (Municipality Cost-Benefit)
| Indicaciones para el ajuste UWWTD
| Indicaciones para el ajuste UWWTD (Indications for UWWTD Adjustment)
| A positive economic balance is a prerequisite for defining valid adjustments to comply with the directive.
| A positive economic balance is a prerequisite for defining valid adjustments to comply with the directive.
|-
|-
| Calidad de la colaboracion interistitucional
| Calidad de la colaboracion interistitucional (Quality of Inter-institutional Collab)
| Cumplimiento con las políticas regionales y nacionales de MEDIO AMBIENTE y SALUD
| Cumplimiento con las políticas regionales y nacionales de MEDIO AMBIENTE y SALUD (Env. Policy Compliance)
| Strong cooperation between institutions helps ensure compliance with environmental and health policies.
| Strong cooperation between institutions helps ensure compliance with environmental and health policies.
|-
|-
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| High-quality collaboration is essential to agree on how to implement UWWTD adjustments.
| High-quality collaboration is essential to agree on how to implement UWWTD adjustments.
|-
|-
| Calidad del monitoreo CEs
| Calidad del monitoreo CEs (Quality of Monitoring Emerging Contaminants)
| Impacto positivo en la calidad del agua vertida
| Impacto positivo en la calidad del agua vertida Positive Impact: Discharged Water)
| Better monitoring allows better treatment management, improving effluent quality.
| Better monitoring allows better treatment management, improving effluent quality.
|-
|-
| Calidad del monitoreo CEs
| Calidad del monitoreo CEs
| Impacto positivo sobre la calidad del agua
| Impacto positivo sobre la calidad del agua (Positive Impact: Water Quality)
| General water quality improves when monitoring systems are robust.
| General water quality improves when monitoring systems are robust.
|-
|-
| Competencia de los expertos
| Competencia de los expertos (Expert Competence)
| Nivel de correspondencia de las SbN con los mapas de zonas de riesgo
| Nivel de correspondencia de las SbN con los mapas de zonas de riesgo (SbN alignment with Risk Maps)
| Knowledgeable experts ensure that NBS are located correctly according to risk zones.
| Knowledgeable experts ensure that NBS are located correctly according to risk zones.
|-
|-
| Concienciación ciudadana
| Concienciación... ciudadana (Citizen Awareness/Support)
| Nivel de consenso político
| Nivel de consenso político (Political Consensus)
| Public support helps build political consensus.
| Public support helps build political consensus.
|-
|-
| Cumplimiento con las políticas
| Cumplimiento con las políticas ...(Policy Compliance)
| Nivel de cumplimiento del plan de gestión
| Nivel de cumplimiento del plan de gestión (Management Plan Compliance)
| Adhering to high-level policies ensures that the management plan aligns with present and future regulations.
| Adhering to high-level policies ensures that the management plan aligns with present and future regulations.
|-
|-
| Eficacia del proceso de permisos SbN
| Eficacia del proceso de permisos SbN (NBS Permitting Efficacy)
| Numero y impacto de inversiones SbN
| Numero y impacto de inversiones SbN (No. & Impact of SbN Investments)
| Efficient permits help unlock private investments in NBS.
| Efficient permits help unlock private investments in NBS.
|-
|-
| Impacto CapEx OpEx EDAR Depuracion
| Impacto CapEx OpEx EDAR Depuracion (WWTP Operational/Capital Expenses)
| Beneficios-costes total EDAR Depuracion
| Beneficios-costes total EDAR Depuracion (Total Cost-Benefit: WWTP)
| Managing operational and capital costs is the main driver of WWTP cost-benefit performance.
| Managing operational and capital costs is the main driver of WWTP cost-benefit performance.
|-
|-
Line 465: Line 500:
| Cleaner discharged water helps the management plan meet regulatory targets.
| Cleaner discharged water helps the management plan meet regulatory targets.
|-
|-
| Impacto positivo sobre CSO
| Impacto positivo sobre CSO (Positive Impact on Sewer Overflows)
| Beneficios-costes total EDAR Depuracion
| Beneficios-costes total EDAR Depuracion
| Reducing sewer overflows strongly improves WWTP cost-benefit.
| Reducing sewer overflows strongly improves WWTP cost-benefit.
Line 497: Line 532:
| Freeing up plant load directly increases system capacity.
| Freeing up plant load directly increases system capacity.
|-
|-
| Importancia del tema en la agenda política
| Importancia del tema en la agenda política (Political Agenda Importance)
| Calidad de la colaboracion interistitucional
| Calidad de la colaboracion interistitucional
| When the issue becomes a political priority, institutions are pushed to collaborate more effectively.
| When the issue becomes a political priority, institutions are pushed to collaborate more effectively.
Line 505: Line 540:
| Higher capacity yields better economic returns for the city.
| Higher capacity yields better economic returns for the city.
|-
|-
| Indices de multifuncionalidad SbN
| Indices de multifuncionalidad SbN (SbN Multifunctionality Indices)
| Beneficios-costos para el municipio
| Beneficios-costos para el municipio
| Multi-purpose green solutions create economic value.
| Multi-purpose green solutions create economic value.
Line 517: Line 552:
| Political agreement is a requirement for finalizing UWWTD guidelines.
| Political agreement is a requirement for finalizing UWWTD guidelines.
|-
|-
| Nivel de correspondencia SbN con mapas
| Nivel de correspondencia SbN con mapas (Alignment with Risk Maps)
| Eficacia del proceso de concesión de permisos para SbN
| Eficacia del proceso de concesión de permisos para SbN
| Projects aligned with risk maps are more easily permitted.
| Projects aligned with risk maps are more easily permitted.
Line 640: Line 675:
|}
|}


== Simulation results ==
= Simulation Results =
 
== Simulation Run #1 - Simulation Table ==
''This table shows the evolution of state variables during the simulation.''
[[File:SantanderTabellaIntervento.png|center]]


=== Do-nothing scenario ===
=== Simulation Plot - do-nothing scenario ===
''Because of the "artificial" initial condition, the chart comparing the initial and final states of the observable variables in a do-nothing scenario is not significant, hence not reported.''


Because of the artificial initial condition, the chart comparing the initial and final states of the observable variables in a do-nothing scenario was not considered significant and is therefore not reported.
In the Santander pilot case, the initial situation was defined on the basis of the hypothesis of a provisional procedure to carry out experimental initiatives and compare the scenarios corresponding to the outcomes of the different types of initiatives envisaged.


=== Simulation Run #1 – Interpretation ===
With this in mind, the results of the ‘do-nothing’ scenario are not significant, because it would be ‘do-nothing’ starting from ‘do-something’, i.e. the adoption of provisional legislation.


The simulation shows that, even in the baseline scenario, the system converges toward a structure in which:
= Intervention Results =
''This section documents, in graphical and tabular form, the results of the interventions simulations.''


* '''Indicaciones para el ajuste UWWTD''' becomes one of the strongest observables
== Intervention Simulation Run #1 ==
* '''Beneficios-costos para el municipio''' grows substantially
* '''Incremento de capacidad del sistema''' stabilizes at a relevant level
* Several governance variables remain weak unless explicitly activated through interventions


== Intervention results ==
=== Intervention Details ===
''This table shows the details of the intevention(s).''
{| class="wikitable"
|+
!'''Intervention Entity'''
!'''Target Entity'''
!'''Impact Value'''
!'''Effectiveness'''
|-
|Proyecto de ciencia ciudadana para el monitoreo de CEs
|Calidad del monitoreo CEs
|0.81
|0.73
|-
|Proyecto de ciencia ciudadana para el monitoreo de CEs
|Indices de multifuncionalidad SbN inundaciones, sequías, CEs
|0.36
|0.73
|-
|Proyecto de ciencia ciudadana para el monitoreo de CEs
|Incremento de capacidad del sistema
|0.37
|0.73
|-
|Proyecto de ciencia ciudadana para el monitoreo de CEs
|Concienciación, compromiso y apoyo de los ciudadanos y las organizaciones de la sociedad civil
|0.32
|0.73
|-
|Proyecto de ciencia ciudadana para el monitoreo de CEs
|Indicaciones para el ajuste UWWTD
|0.35
|0.73
|-
|Incentivos para la construcción privada que adopta SbN en zonas críticas
|Numero y impacto de inversiones SbN particulares autorizadas
|0.41
|0.70
|-
|Incentivos para la construcción privada que adopta SbN en zonas críticas
|Impacto CapEx OpEx Gestor SII
|0.54
|0.70
|-
|Incentivos para la construcción privada que adopta SbN en zonas críticas
|Impacto positivo sobre la capacidad de carga EDAR
|0.35
|0.70
|-
|Incentivos para la construcción privada que adopta SbN en zonas críticas
|Impacto operativo sobre Otros servicios
|0.37
|0.70
|-
|Transformación de una zona verde pública en SnB asignada a los ciudadanos para su mantenimiento
|Concienciación, compromiso y apoyo de los ciudadanos y las organizaciones de la sociedad civil
|0.41
|0.69
|-
|Transformación de una zona verde pública en SnB asignada a los ciudadanos para su mantenimiento
|Impacto operativo sobre Otros servicios
|0.22
|0.69
|-
|Transformación de una zona verde pública en SnB asignada a los ciudadanos para su mantenimiento
|Indices de multifuncionalidad SbN inundaciones, sequías, CEs
|0.23
|0.69
|-
|Transformación de una zona verde pública en SnB asignada a los ciudadanos para su mantenimiento
|Impacto positivo sobre la capacidad de carga EDAR
|0.37
|0.69
|}


=== Intervention details ===
=== Equilibrium Table ===
''This table shows the equilibrium values of state variables at baseline and intervention(s).''


{| class="wikitable sortable"
{| class="wikitable sortable"
! Intervention
! Concept
! Target Entity
! Baseline
! Impact Value
! Proyecto de ciencia ciudadana para el monitoreo de CEs
! Effectiveness
! Incentivos para la construcción privada que adopta SbN en zonas críticas
! Transformación de una zona verde pública en SbN asignada a los ciudadanos para su mantenimiento
|-
| Beneficios-costes total EDAR Depuración
| 0.239
| 0.239
| 0.370
| 0.376
|-
| Beneficios-costes total Gestor SII
| 0.075
| 0.218
| 0.209
| 0.075
|-
| Beneficios-costos para el municipio
| 0.676
| 0.808
| 0.838
| 0.791
|-
| Calidad de la colaboración interistitucional
| 0.100
| 0.100
| 0.100
| 0.100
|-
|-
| Proyecto de ciencia ciudadana para el monitoreo de CEs
| Calidad del monitoreo CEs
| Calidad del monitoreo CEs
| 0.81
| 0.100
| 0.73
| 0.528
| 0.100
| 0.100
|-
|-
| Proyecto de ciencia ciudadana para el monitoreo de CEs
| Competencia de los expertos (Amplitud y especialización de los conocimientos)
| Indices de multifuncionalidad SbN inundaciones, sequías, CEs
| 0.700
| 0.36
| 0.700
| 0.73
| 0.700
| 0.700
|-
|-
| Proyecto de ciencia ciudadana para el monitoreo de CEs
| Concienciación, compromiso y apoyo de los ciudadanos y las organizaciones de la sociedad civil
| Incremento de capacidad del sistema
| 0.067
| 0.37
| 0.291
| 0.73
| 0.067
| 0.336
|-
|-
| Proyecto de ciencia ciudadana para el monitoreo de CEs
| Cumplimiento con las políticas regionales y nacionales de MEDIO AMBIENTE y SALUD
| Concienciación, compromiso y apoyo de los ciudadanos y las organizaciones de la sociedad civil
| 0.099
| 0.32
| 0.099
| 0.73
| 0.099
| 0.099
|-
|-
| Proyecto de ciencia ciudadana para el monitoreo de CEs
| Eficacia del proceso de concesión de permisos para SbN
| Indicaciones para el ajuste UWWTD
| 0.570
| 0.35
| 0.613
| 0.73
| 0.570
| 0.586
|-
|-
| Incentivos para la construcción privada que adopta SbN en zonas críticas
| Impacto CapEx OpEx EDAR Depuración
| Numero y impacto de inversiones SbN particulares autorizadas
| 0.100
| 0.41
| 0.100
| 0.70
| 0.100
| 0.100
|-
|-
| Incentivos para la construcción privada que adopta SbN en zonas críticas
| Impacto CapEx OpEx Gestor SII
| Impacto CapEx OpEx Gestor SII
| 0.54
| 0.100
| 0.70
| 0.100
| 0.442
| 0.100
|-
| Impacto CapEx OpEx Otros Servicios
| 0.275
| 0.275
| 0.364
| 0.331
|-
|-
| Incentivos para la construcción privada que adopta SbN en zonas críticas
| Impacto de los proyectos aprobados
| Impacto positivo sobre la capacidad de carga EDAR
| 0.356
| 0.35
| 0.373
| 0.70
| 0.449
| 0.363
|-
|-
| Incentivos para la construcción privada que adopta SbN en zonas críticas
| Impacto operativo sobre Otros servicios
| Impacto operativo sobre Otros servicios
| 0.37
| 0.487
| 0.70
| 0.487
| 0.658
| 0.594
|-
|-
| Transformación de una zona verde pública en SnB asignada a los ciudadanos para su mantenimiento
| Impacto positivo en la calidad del agua vertida
| Concienciación, compromiso y apoyo de los ciudadanos y las organizaciones de la sociedad civil
| 0.159
| 0.41
| 0.394
| 0.69
| 0.159
| 0.159
|-
|-
| Transformación de una zona verde pública en SnB asignada a los ciudadanos para su mantenimiento
| Impacto positivo sobre CSO
| Impacto operativo sobre Otros servicios
| 0.100
| 0.22
| 0.100
| 0.69
| 0.100
| 0.100
|-
|-
| Transformación de una zona verde pública en SnB asignada a los ciudadanos para su mantenimiento
| Impacto positivo sobre la calidad del agua
| Indices de multifuncionalidad SbN inundaciones, sequías, CEs
| 0.057
| 0.23
| 0.292
| 0.69
| 0.057
| 0.057
|-
|-
| Transformación de una zona verde pública en SnB asignada a los ciudadanos para su mantenimiento
| Impacto positivo sobre la capacidad de carga EDAR
| Impacto positivo sobre la capacidad de carga EDAR
| 0.37
| 0.100
| 0.69
| 0.100
|}
| 0.330
 
| 0.341
=== Comparison of interventions on key observables ===
|-
 
| Importancia del tema escorrentía urbana CEs-SbN y UWWTD en la agenda política
{| class="wikitable"
| 0.100
! Observable
| 0.100
! Citizen science monitoring
| 0.100
! Private construction incentives with NBS
| 0.100
! Public green area transformed into citizen-maintained NBS
|-
|-
| Beneficios-costos para el municipio
| Incremento de capacidad del sistema
| 19.65%
| 0.515
| '''24.10%'''
| 0.698
| 17.03%
| 0.739
| 0.675
|-
|-
| Indicaciones para el ajuste UWWTD
| Indicaciones para el ajuste UWWTD
| '''18.90%'''
| 0.783
| 7.06%
| 0.931
| 8.88%
| 0.839
| 0.853
|-
| Índices de multifuncionalidad SbN inundaciones, sequías, CEs
| 0.100
| 0.256
| 0.100
| 0.157
|-
|-
| Nivel de consenso político
| Nivel de consenso político
| 109.43%
| 0.075
| 0.00%
| 0.156
| '''131.43%'''
| 0.075
| 0.173
|-
| Nivel de correspondencia de las SbN con los mapas de zonas de riesgo
| 0.604
| 0.604
| 0.604
| 0.604
|-
| Nivel de cumplimiento del plan de gestión propuesto con la normativa vigente y futura
| 0.204
| 0.352
| 0.204
| 0.204
|-
| Número y impacto de inversiones SbN particulares autorizadas
| 0.515
| 0.546
| 0.694
| 0.527
|-
|-
| Incremento de capacidad del sistema
| Número y impacto de proyectos con participación directa de la ciudadanía
| 35.67%
| 0.100
| '''43.59%'''
| 0.100
| 31.22%
| 0.100
| 0.100
|}
|}


=== Main findings on interventions ===
=== Comparison Table ===
 
''This table shows the differences between the intervention(s) in relative terms (i.e., % increase or decrease) compared to the baseline.''
==== 1. Citizen science project for monitoring emerging contaminants ====
{| class="wikitable sortable"
 
! Concept
This intervention emerges as the most '''balanced and holistic''' scenario.
! Baseline
 
! Proyecto de ciencia ciudadana para el monitoreo de CEs
* Strong increase in '''political consensus''' (+109.43%)
! Incentivos para la construcción privada que adopta SbN en zonas críticas
* Relevant increase in '''system capacity''' (+35.67%)
! Transformación de una zona verde pública en SbN asignada a los ciudadanos para su mantenimiento
* Improvement in '''municipal cost-benefit''' (+19.65%)
* Best contribution to '''UWWTD adjustment indications''' (+18.90%)
 
It appears especially effective in bridging technical data collection and social acceptance.
 
==== 2. Incentives for private construction adopting NBS in critical zones ====
 
This is the strongest scenario in terms of '''hard infrastructure and economic performance'''.
 
* Highest increase in '''system capacity''' (+43.59%)
* Highest increase in '''municipal cost-benefit''' (+24.10%)
* Strong operational gains across the infrastructure chain
* No impact on '''political consensus'''
 
It is therefore the most technically efficient option, but weaker as a governance and policy-alignment lever.
 
==== 3. Transformation of a public green zone into citizen-maintained NBS ====
 
This intervention performs best in terms of '''social and political cohesion'''.
 
* Highest increase in '''political consensus''' (+131.43%)
* Good contribution to '''municipal cost-benefit''' (+17.03%)
* Good increase in '''system capacity''' (+31.22%)
* Strong relief on treatment-plant load
 
This option is especially relevant for building community ownership and overcoming political gridlock.
 
== Other observable impacts ==
 
{| class="wikitable"
! Observable
! Citizen science monitoring
! Private construction incentives
! Citizen-maintained public green NBS
|-
|-
| Beneficios-costes total EDAR Depuracion
| Beneficios-costes total EDAR Depuración
| 0.00%
| 0.00%
| 0.00%
| 55.09%
| 55.09%
| '''57.52%'''
| 57.52%
|-
|-
| Beneficios-costes total Gestor SII
| Beneficios-costes total Gestor SII
| '''190.09%'''
| 0.00%
| 190.09%
| 178.77%
| 178.77%
| 0.00%
| 0.00%
|-
|-
| Impacto CapEx OpEx EDAR Depuracion
| Beneficios-costos para el municipio
| 0.00%
| 19.65%
| 24.10%
| 17.03%
|-
| Calidad de la colaboración interistitucional
| 0.00%
| 0.00%
| 0.00%
| 0.00%
|-
| Calidad del monitoreo CEs
| 0.00%
| 428.50%
| 0.00%
| 0.00%
|-
| Competencia de los expertos (Amplitud y especialización de los conocimientos)
| 0.00%
| 0.00%
| 0.00%
| 0.00%
|-
| Concienciación, compromiso y apoyo de los ciudadanos y las organizaciones de la sociedad civil
| 0.00%
| 334.51%
| 0.00%
| 402.67%
|-
| Cumplimiento con las políticas regionales y nacionales de MEDIO AMBIENTE y SALUD
| 0.00%
| 0.00%
| 0.00%
| 0.00%
|-
| Eficacia del proceso de concesión de permisos para SbN
| 0.00%
| 7.62%
| 0.00%
| 2.88%
|-
| Impacto CapEx OpEx EDAR Depuración
| 0.00%
| 0.00%
| 0.00%
| 0.00%
| 0.00%
Line 820: Line 1,012:
| Impacto CapEx OpEx Gestor SII
| Impacto CapEx OpEx Gestor SII
| 0.00%
| 0.00%
| '''343.95%'''
| 0.00%
| 343.95%
| 0.00%
| 0.00%
|-
|-
| Impacto CapEx OpEx Otros Servicios
| Impacto CapEx OpEx Otros Servicios
| 0.00%
| 0.00%
| '''32.35%'''
| 0.00%
| 32.35%
| 20.50%
| 20.50%
|-
| Impacto de los proyectos aprobados
| 0.00%
| 4.71%
| 25.97%
| 1.81%
|-
| Impacto operativo sobre Otros servicios
| 0.00%
| 0.00%
| 35.14%
| 22.00%
|-
| Impacto positivo en la calidad del agua vertida
| 0.00%
| 148.65%
| 0.00%
| 0.00%
|-
| Impacto positivo sobre CSO
| 0.00%
| 0.00%
| 0.00%
| 0.00%
|-
| Impacto positivo sobre la calidad del agua
| 0.00%
| 413.63%
| 0.00%
| 0.00%
|-
|-
| Impacto positivo sobre la capacidad de carga EDAR
| Impacto positivo sobre la capacidad de carga EDAR
| 0.00%
| 0.00%
| 0.00%
| 231.48%
| 231.48%
| '''242.20%'''
| 242.20%
|-
| Importancia del tema escorrentía urbana CEs-SbN y UWWTD en la agenda política
| 0.00%
| 0.00%
| 0.00%
| 0.00%
|-
| Incremento de capacidad del sistema
| 0.00%
| 35.67%
| 43.59%
| 31.22%
|-
| Indicaciones para el ajuste UWWTD
| 0.00%
| 18.90%
| 7.06%
| 8.88%
|-
| Índices de multifuncionalidad SbN inundaciones, sequías, CEs
| 0.00%
| 155.57%
| 0.00%
| 57.38%
|-
| Nivel de consenso político
| 0.00%
| 109.43%
| 0.00%
| 131.43%
|-
| Nivel de correspondencia de las SbN con los mapas de zonas de riesgo
| 0.00%
| 0.00%
| 0.00%
| 0.00%
|-
| Nivel de cumplimiento del plan de gestión propuesto con la normativa vigente y futura
| 0.00%
| 72.23%
| 0.00%
| 0.00%
|-
| Número y impacto de inversiones SbN particulares autorizadas
| 0.00%
| 6.05%
| 34.60%
| 2.32%
|-
| Número y impacto de proyectos con participación directa de la ciudadanía
| 0.00%
| 0.00%
| 0.00%
| 0.00%
|}
|}


=== Interpretation ===
=== Intervention Plot ===
''This graph compares the baseline and final states of the observable variables after intervention(s).''
[[File:InterventionPlot.png|center|1000x1000px]]
We discuss some meaningful elements and significant changes in ourscenario resulting from the intervention we hypothesised.


* The '''citizen science''' intervention acts mainly on knowledge, monitoring, and governance, with strong benefits for the sewer-network manager but limited direct effects on plant capacity.
The proposed measures correspond to the types of measures provided for in the temporary regulations:
* The '''private NBS incentive''' intervention is the most comprehensive infrastructure booster, producing major improvements from the sewer network to final treatment.
* The '''public green-area transformation''' scenario provides the strongest direct relief on the treatment plant, even if it does not improve the intermediate sewer-network management metrics.


== Final notes ==
# citizen science measures for widespread monitoring of runoff water contamination;
# measures to facilitate private building initiatives (new construction or major renovations) that involve the construction and management of NBS;
# the allocation and adaptation of a currently degraded public green area to NBS functions, assigning its management to residents' associations or other civil society organisations.


=== Cognitive map ===
Let us recall the main observables:


Overall, the model was constructed with compliance with the '''UWWTD''' and '''economic efficiency''' as ultimate goals, driven by technical performance and political-social factors.
* benefit/cost ratio for the municipality
* Indications for UWWTD adjustment
* political consensus and support
* increase in system capacity


The main political observable is '''Indicaciones para el ajuste UWWTD''', which is influenced by:
=== Impact of interventions on key observables ===
Based on the simulation results, we can elaborate on the impact of each intervention on the key observables as follows.
{| class="wikitable"
|+
!
!'''Proyecto de ciencia ciudadana para el monitoreo de CEs'''
!'''Incentivos para la construcción privada que adopta SbN en zonas críticas'''
!'''Transformación de una zona verde pública en SnB asignada a los ciudadanos para su mantenimiento'''
|-
|Beneficios-costos para el municipio
|19.65%
|24.10%
|17.03%
|-
|Indicaciones para el ajuste UWWTD
|18.90%
|7.06%
|8.88%
|-
|Nivel de consenso político
|109.43%
|0.00%
|131.43%
|-
|Incremento de capacidad del sistema
|35.67%
|43.59%
|31.22%
|}
[[File:InterventionImpact.png|center|800x800px]]


* political consensus
* institutional collaboration
* regulatory compliance
* economic benefits for the municipality


=== Key drivers ===
'''Citizen science project for monitoring emerging contaminants''' comes out as a balanced approach that delivers gains across all dimensions, particularly in governance. It impacts on the Political Consensus Level, which more than doubles (+109.43%), based on the assumption that involving citizens in scientific monitoring creates a unifying force for policy. Technically, it also performs well, driving a 35.67% increase in System Capacity and improving the Municipality's Cost-Benefit ratio by 19.65%. It is the most "holistic" intervention, potentially bridging the gap between technical data collection (monitoring CEs) and social acceptance.


The model highlights four main root drivers:
The strategy of '''incentivating for private construction adopting NBS in critical zones''' is the clear leader in terms of "hard" infrastructure and economic metrics but fails as a social lever. It generates the highest System Capacity increase (+43.59%) and the best Cost-Benefit improvement (+24.10%), likely because it leverages private capital to solve public infrastructure problems. However, it has no impact on Political Consensus and the lowest influence on UWWTD Adjustment Indications (+7.06%). It is a technically efficient solution that solves capacity issues without necessarily building the political capital or broad policy alignment needed for long-term changes.


* '''Political driver:''' Importance of runoff/UWWTD in the political agenda
'''Transformation of public green zones into citizen-maintained NBS'''. This intervention leads in social and political cohesion. It triggers a high +131.43% surge in Political Consensus, the highest of any scenario, suggesting that giving citizens direct responsibility for maintaining green infrastructure creates community buy-in. On the other hand, its technical and economic contributions are the most modest of the three, yielding a 17.03% economic benefit and a 31.22% capacity increase. Its ability to mobilize support makes it a potential tool for overcoming political gridlock, even if it is less efficient at boosting raw infrastructure capacity than private incentives.
* '''Social driver:''' Projects with direct citizen participation
* '''Technical driver:''' Quality of monitoring of emerging contaminants
* '''Infrastructure driver:''' Positive impact on CSO


=== Nature of relationships ===
=== Impact of interventions on other observables ===
 
Based on the simulation results for the other observables, we can elaborate further on the impact of each interventio as follows.
All weights in the matrix are positive, so the relationships are reinforcing.
{| class="wikitable"
 
|+
This means that improvements in one area tend to generate improvements in connected areas.
!
 
!'''Proyecto de ciencia ciudadana para el monitoreo de CEs'''
=== Feedback loops ===
!'''Incentivos para la construcción privada que adopta SbN en zonas críticas'''
 
!'''Transformación de una zona verde pública en SnB asignada a los ciudadanos para su mantenimiento'''
The model was intentionally designed without feedback loops at this stage, in order to facilitate maximum clarity in the initial co-modelling process.
|-
 
|Beneficios-costes total  EDAR Depuracion
As a result:
|0.00%
 
|55.09%
* The system does not contain vicious or virtuous cycles
|57.52%
* Effects flow in one direction only
|-
* The model behaves as a '''Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG)'''
|Beneficios-costes total  Gestor SII
* The system is intended as a '''diagnostic / decision-support model''' rather than as a dynamic self-sustaining simulation
|190.09%
 
|178.77%
=== Backbone of the model ===
|0.00%
 
|-
The longest causal chain in the model is the '''NBS Implementation''' chain:
|Impacto CapEx OpEx EDAR Depuracion
 
|0.00%
<blockquote>
|0.00%
Competence of Experts → Correspondence of NBS with Risk Maps → Efficacy of Permitting Process → Number and Impact of Authorized NBS Investments → Impact of Approved Projects → Increase in System Capacity → Cost-Benefit for Municipality → Indications for UWWTD Adjustment
|0.00%
</blockquote>
|-
 
|Impacto CapEx OpEx Gestor SII
This chain shows how technical expertise can ultimately translate into regulatory compliance.
|0.00%
 
|343.95%
== Conclusions ==
|0.00%
 
|-
The Santander pilot experiment suggests that different intervention types support different policy objectives:
|Impacto CapEx OpEx Otros Servicios
 
|0.00%
* '''Citizen science monitoring''' is the most balanced intervention and the strongest in governance support.
|32.35%
* '''Private incentives for NBS''' are the most effective in infrastructure and economic performance.
|20.50%
* '''Citizen-managed public green NBS''' are the strongest in social legitimacy and political consensus.
|-
 
|Impacto positivo sobre la capacidad de carga EDAR
Taken together, the results show that compliance-oriented policy design for urban runoff management can benefit from combining:
|0.00%
 
|231.48%
* technical evidence generation,
|242.20%
* private-sector activation,
|}
* and citizen-centred stewardship models.
 
== Disclaimer ==
 
This report has been automatically generated to track the experiment and contains only the information provided by the experimenter and its processing by the PoMM according to the rules defined in the User’s Manual.
 
The authors’ final editing and formatting did not alter the content of the notes and simulation.


PoMM and its authors are not responsible for how these notes are used.
'''Citizen science project for monitoring emerging contaminants''' acts as a wake-up call on the efficiency of the sewer network management improving the Total Cost-Benefit for the SII utility, likely by providing critical data that optimizes maintenance and operations. However, its scope is remarkably contained; it shows no impact on the Wastewater Treatment Plant (EDAR) metrics (both capacity and cost-benefit) or other municipal services. This suggests that while citizen monitoring is a powerful tool for the specific entity managing the network, it does not alleviate the physical load or economic pressures on the downstream treatment infrastructure.


However, documenting experiments is essential to ensure that all relevant information is available for sharing results with stakeholders.
'''Incentives for private construction adopting NBS in critical zones'''. This strategy is the most comprehensive infrastructure booster, influencing nearly every operational metric. It drives high positive impact on the SII utility's CapEx/OpEx along with a 178.77% improvement in their Cost-Benefit, indicating an optimization of network operations. Simultaneously, it provides significant relief to the treatment plant, increasing the Positive Impact on EDAR Load Capacity by 231.48% and boosting the plant's economic benefits by 55.09%. It is a "dual-benefit" solution that modernizes the entire chain from the sewer network to the final treatment facility.


'''Transformation of public green zones into citizen-maintained NBS'''. This intervention outperforms all other scenarios in relieving pressure on the central infrastructure, delivering the highest Positive Impact on EDAR Load Capacity (+242.20%) and the best improvement in EDAR Cost-Benefit (+57.52%). Interestingly, unlike the private incentives, it completely bypasses the intermediate sewer network manager (showing no impact on Gestor SII metrics). This suggests that public green zones act as a direct buffer for the treatment plant, managing water upstream in a way that benefits the final destination without necessarily altering the economics of the pipe network in between.
----
----
''This page is based on the automatically generated PoMM report for the Santander pilot case.''


  Back to >> [[PoMM for the Santander D4Runoff pilot]]  
  Back to >> [[PoMM for the Santander D4Runoff pilot]]  
  Back to >> [[The FCM simulation tests & results]]
  Back to >> [[The FCM simulation tests & results]]

Latest revision as of 18:09, 15 April 2026

Implementation of the PoMM Module in the Pilot Sites – Santander (ES)

The primary local stakeholders actively participated in the testing of the PoMM module in Santander: Mrs Margarita Rojo, Primera teniente de alcalde y Concejala de Medio Ambiente y Servicios Técnicos del Ayuntamiento de Santander and Mrs Belén Domínguez, Directora General de Medio Ambiente del Ayuntamiento de Santander; Verónica Abascal, Directora del Servicio de AQUALIA en Santander, Marta Hernandez Zubieta: Responsable Departamento de redes de saneamiento. Additionally, prof. Jorge Rodriguez participated on behalf of the University of Cantabria and Mrs Andrea Camila Forero Ortiz on behalf of the partner AQUALIA.

Their active support was instrumental to the successful execution of this test.

Challenge definition

The experiment session reflects the Santander pilot case for policy development towards compliance with the recast Urban Waste Water Treatment Directive (UWWTD).

The challenge set by the key stakeholders — the Municipality of Santander and the concessionaire of water and wastewater management services, FCC Aqualia — was:

What intervention in the current policy-making and decision-making process would encourage and facilitate the development of a minimalist (“do the minimum” / current conditions) emerging pollutants management plan for urban runoff that includes NBS, inspired by compliance with the EU Directive on urban wastewater treatment, and plausible given the current state of affairs?

Unity of analysis, NBS and CEC

Selected Region

  • Name: Cantabria
  • ID: ES130

Selected LAU

  • Name: Santander
  • Code: 39075

Selected Natural Based Solution

  • ID: Not applicable
  • Name: Not applicable
  • Description: No NBS selected for this analysis.

Selected Contaminant of Emerging Concern

  • Compound Name: Not applicable
  • Family: Not applicable
  • Compound: Not applicable
  • CAS: Not applicable

The unit of analysis corresponds to the municipality of Santander. All decision-making and operational processes considered in the experiment take place within this perimeter.

Even in the case of the treatment plant, which falls under regional jurisdiction, the operational field considered is that of the city of Santander.

In this experiment, neither target contaminants nor corresponding NBS mitigation solutions were selected, because the objective is to define and explore the experimental process and path towards compliance with the new directive on urban wastewater treatment.

Decision process flow

The process examined is described according to the BPMN standard.

Santander BPMN case
Santander BPMN case


In the Santander context, compliance with the new UWWTD requires the design of a provisional and experimental regulatory hypothesis for developing approximation policies. Therefore, the decision process flow outlined is itself an intervention design.

Due to its project nature, the current initial values of the variables were not available and were therefore assigned a minimum value (different from zero for technical reasons).

The process is structured in three phases:

  1. Politico-legal verification
  2. Technical-political project
  3. Experimentation and evaluation

The Ayuntamiento de Santander (Concejalía de Medio Ambiente) takes the political and technical lead and drives the process through the following steps:

  1. Define strategic framework governance
    • Agenda setting
    • Creation of a scientific-technical committee
    • Definition of objectives
    • Request for verifications
  2. Design pilot plan and normative framework
    • Consultation with managers
    • Definition of monitoring directives
    • Pilot guidelines
  3. Pilot execution and monitoring
    • Public call
    • Implementation
    • Testing period
    • Monitoring
  4. Final evaluation and policy update
    • Political evaluation
    • Implementation evaluation
    • Policy adaptation

The Expert Group is called to propose priority CECs and an NBS abacus. Operational stakeholders — Gestor EDAR, Gestor Servicio Idrico, and Gestor de viabilidad/parques — are involved in impact analysis and cost-benefit evaluation.

Most important entities

The following variables were selected for the experiment:

  1. Competencia de los expertos (Amplitud y especialización de los conocimientos)
  2. Numero y impacto de proyectos con participación directa de la ciudadanía
  3. Indicaciones para el ajuste UWWTD
  4. Impacto CapEx OpEx Gestor SII
  5. Impacto positivo sobre la calidad del agua
  6. Beneficios-costes total EDAR Depuracion
  7. Eficacia del proceso de concesión de permisos para SbN
  8. Impacto de los proyectos apruebados
  9. Impacto CapEx OpEx Otros Servicios
  10. Indices de multifuncionalidad SbN inundaciones, sequías, CEs
  11. Impacto operativo sobre Otros servicios
  12. Nivel de cumplimiento del plan de gestión propuesto con la normativa vigente y futura
  13. Beneficios-costos para el municipio
  14. Importancia del tema escorrentía urbana CEs-SbN y UWWTD en la agenda política
  15. Incremento de capacidad del sistema
  16. Impacto positivo en la calidad del agua vertida
  17. Calidad de la colaboracion interistitucional
  18. Cumplimiento con las políticas regionales y nacionales de MEDIO AMBIENTE y SALUD
  19. Beneficios-costes total Gestor SII
  20. Nivel de correspondencia de las SbN con los mapas de zonas de riesgo
  21. Numero y impacto de inversiones SbN particulares autorizadas
  22. Calidad del monitoreo CEs
  23. Impacto positivo sobre la capacidad de carga EDAR
  24. Indice de correspondencia de las SbN con los mapas de riesgo
  25. Nivel de consenso político
  26. Impacto positivo sobre CSO
  27. Beneficios-costes total Otros Servicios
  28. Concienciación, compromiso y apoyo de los ciudadanos y las organizaciones de la sociedad civil
  29. Impacto CapEx OpEx EDAR Depuracion

Cognitive Map Information

This section lists the main concepts included in the Fuzzy Cognitive Map (FCM).

Concept Notes
Competencia de los expertos (Amplitud y especialización de los conocimientos) The level of specialized technical knowledge and breadth of expertise possessed by the scientists and professionals engaged in the Group of experts.
Numero y impacto de proyectos con participación directa de la ciudadanía The quantity and significance of initiatives promoted through the provisional regulation that actively involve local residents in their planning or implementation phases.
Indicaciones para el ajuste UWWTD The knowledge, guidelines and strategic directions required to bring the system into compliance with the European Urban Waste Water Treatment Directive.
Impacto CapEx OpEx Gestor SII The financial impact on the capital and operational expenditures borne by the manager of the Integrated Sewerage System.
Impacto positivo sobre la calidad del agua The general improvement in the ecological and chemical status of the receiving water bodies resulting from the interventions.
Beneficios-costes total EDAR Depuracion The overall economic efficiency ratio comparing benefits gained versus costs incurred by the wastewater treatment plant.
Eficacia del proceso de concesión de permisos para SbN The speed and efficiency of the administrative procedures required to approve and license Nature-based Solutions under the provisional regulations.
Impacto de los proyectos apruebados The tangible benefits and outcomes realized from projects that have successfully passed the approval stage.
Impacto CapEx OpEx Otros Servicios The financial repercussions on the budgets of other municipal departments or services caused by water management activities and approved projects.
Indices de multifuncionalidad SbN inundaciones, sequías, CEs Metrics that evaluate how well green infrastructure performs across multiple goals simultaneously, such as flood control, drought mitigation, and contaminant removal.
Impacto operativo sobre Otros servicios The day-to-day functional effects or disruptions that water management operations and approved projects have on other city services.
Nivel de cumplimiento del plan de gestión propuesto con la normativa vigente y futura The degree to which the proposed water-management strategy aligns with current laws and anticipated future regulations.
Beneficios-costos para el municipio The net economic value or return on investment derived by the local government from the implemented initiatives.
Importancia del tema escorrentía urbana CEs-SbN y UWWTD en la agenda política The priority level that policymakers assign to issues regarding urban runoff, emerging contaminants, and wastewater directive constraints.
Incremento de capacidad del sistema The net gain in the total volume of water or pollutant load that the infrastructure can successfully handle.
Impacto positivo en la calidad del agua vertida The specific improvement in the purity of the treated effluent released from the treatment plant into the environment.
Calidad de la colaboracion interistitucional The effectiveness of communication and cooperation between different government agencies and institutions involved in water governance.
Cumplimiento con las políticas regionales y nacionales de MEDIO AMBIENTE y SALUD The extent to which the proposed provisional regulation adheres to broader environmental protection and public health standards set by regional and national authorities.
Beneficios-costes total Gestor SII The economic performance specifically for the entity responsible for managing the sewer network.
Nivel de correspondencia de las SbN con los mapas de zonas de riesgo The accuracy with which Nature-based Solutions are located in areas identified as high-risk for flooding or contamination.
Numero y impacto de inversiones SbN particulares autorizadas The volume and effect of privately funded green infrastructure projects officially authorized by the municipality.
Calidad del monitoreo CEs The precision and reliability of the monitoring systems used to detect and track emerging contaminants in the water.
Impacto positivo sobre la capacidad de carga EDAR The reduction in strain on the treatment plant, reducing also the size of improvements needed to upgrade treatment technologies.
Nivel de consenso político The degree of agreement and unity among different political factions regarding the proposed runoff-water management strategies.
Impacto positivo sobre CSO The effectiveness of the system in reducing combined sewer overflows during storms.
Beneficios-costes total Otros Servicios The economic balance for other auxiliary municipal services indirectly affected by runoff-water management decisions and projects.
Concienciación, compromiso y apoyo de los ciudadanos y las organizaciones de la sociedad civil The level of public understanding and active support from residents and NGOs for runoff-water management plans and projects.
Impacto CapEx OpEx EDAR Depuracion The direct influence of runoff-management decisions and projects on the construction and running costs of the wastewater treatment plant.

Cognitive map design

This image represents the cognitive map designed for the experiment.


Overall, the modelling was done taking compliance with European directives (UWWTD) and economic efficiency as the ultimate goals, driven heavily by technical performance and political/social factors.

Following the challenge final purpose, the primary political observable is the concept "Indications for UWWTD adjustment". We modeled it to be strongly influenced by political consensus, institutional collaboration, regulatory compliance, and economic benefits for the municipality.

Key connections between entities / key drivers

The Importance of the topic in the political agenda is a root cause in that it triggers institutional collaboration, setting the governance process in motion.

The Positive impact on Combined Sewer Overflows (CSO) is a "power driver" as ith hase strong influence on multiple financial and operational factors. Controlling sewer overflows is the most effective technical lever in the system.

We set a distinct chain regarding Nature-Based Solutions (SbN in the Spanish translation). It flows from Risk Maps knowledge/fitness and Multifunctionality Indices → Permitting Process →Investments → System Capacity. This is because we assume that successful green infrastructure relies heavily on proper planning (maps) and bureaucratic efficiency (permits).

Nature of relationships (positive/negative)

All weights in the matrix are set positive, meaning the relationships are reinforcing. Improvements in one area (e.g., better monitoring or more consensus) lead to improvements in others.

Strength of relationships

The table "Motivation of relationships" summarises the weights given to the relationships and the reasons for the choice.

Feedback loops

With the aim of establishing the initial outline for further co-modelling work, the model was constructed in such a way as to facilitate maximum comprehensibility of causal links at the initial stage.

This has significant implications for how the system functions and how it should be interpreted:

  • System stability (no "vicious" or "virtuous" cycles): feedback loops are usually the engines of dynamic systems - they cause exponential growth (positive loops) or self-correction/stability (negative loops). While this is how the "real" Santander system works, at initial stage it has been considered useful to "neutralise" the scaffold and to leave the identification of loops to next step of elaboration, possibly internal to the Santander Municipality and Aqualia and run by managers / experts of both entities. For instance, in this model effects flow in one direction only. For example, while Political Consensus drives the UWWTD Adjustments, the adjustments themselves do not feed back to create more consensus.
  • Causal flow (feed-forward). The system operates as a hierarchical chain of causality. It takes specific root causes and processes them through various technical and institutional layers to produce a final outcome. To this end the model has been designed without feedback loops, so classifying as a Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG). Indeed, the Santander case is analysed here using the PoMM laboratory as a diagnostic model / decision-support rather than a dynamic simulation.
  • The "backbone" of the model is defined by long causal chains instead of loops. This allows to take into account the depth of the decision-making process. The longest chain "NBS Implementation" goes through 7 steps. This path shows how technical expertise translates into regulatory compliance. Competence of Experts → Ensures accurate planning/Correspondence of NBS with Risk Maps → Facilitates bureaucracy/Efficacy of Permitting process → Unlocks private capital/Number & Impact of authorized NBS investments → Realizes projects/Impact of approved projects → Improves infrastructure/Increase in system capacity → Creates economic value/Cost-Benefit for Municipality → Enables final decision/Indications for UWWTD adjustment (Final step).

Overall system dynamics

Since there are no loops to sustain the system internally, the outcomes are entirely dependent on the continuous input from the root drivers. If these stop, the entire process halts:

Political driver: Importance of runoff/UWWTD in the political agenda.

Social driver: Projects with direct citizen participation.

Technical driver: Quality of monitoring (Emerging Contaminants).

Infrastructure driver: Positive impact on CSO (Combined Sewer Overflows).

Relationships between entities

Source Target Influence
Competencia de los expertos (Amplitud y especialización de los conocimientos) Nivel de correspondencia de las SbN con los mapas de zonas de riesgo 1
Numero y impacto de proyectos con participación directa de la ciudadanía Nivel de consenso político 0.5
Numero y impacto de proyectos con participación directa de la ciudadanía Concienciación, compromiso y apoyo de los ciudadanos y las organizaciones de la sociedad civil 0.67
Numero y impacto de proyectos con participación directa de la ciudadanía Impacto de los proyectos apruebados 0.53
Impacto CapEx OpEx Gestor SII Beneficios-costes total Gestor SII 0.4
Impacto positivo sobre la calidad del agua Beneficios-costes total Gestor SII 0.62
Beneficios-costes total EDAR Depuracion Beneficios-costos para el municipio 0.6
Eficacia del proceso de concesión de permisos para SbN Numero y impacto de inversiones SbN particulares autorizadas 1
Impacto de los proyectos apruebados Incremento de capacidad del sistema 0.45
Impacto de los proyectos apruebados Beneficios-costos para el municipio 0.2
Impacto CapEx OpEx Otros Servicios Beneficios-costos para el municipio 0.57
Indices de multifuncionalidad SbN inundaciones, sequías, CEs Beneficios-costos para el municipio 0.47
Indices de multifuncionalidad SbN inundaciones, sequías, CEs Eficacia del proceso de concesión de permisos para SbN 0.43
Impacto operativo sobre Otros servicios Impacto CapEx OpEx Otros Servicios 0.58
Nivel de cumplimiento del plan de gestión propuesto con la normativa vigente y futura Indicaciones para el ajuste UWWTD 1
Beneficios-costos para el municipio Indicaciones para el ajuste UWWTD 1
Importancia del tema escorrentía urbana CEs-SbN y UWWTD en la agenda política Calidad de la colaboracion interistitucional 1
Incremento de capacidad del sistema Beneficios-costos para el municipio 0.68
Impacto positivo en la calidad del agua vertida Nivel de cumplimiento del plan de gestión propuesto con la normativa vigente y futura 0.68
Calidad de la colaboracion interistitucional Cumplimiento con las políticas regionales y nacionales de MEDIO AMBIENTE y SALUD 1
Calidad de la colaboracion interistitucional Indicaciones para el ajuste UWWTD 1
Cumplimiento con las políticas regionales y nacionales de MEDIO AMBIENTE y SALUD Nivel de cumplimiento del plan de gestión propuesto con la normativa vigente y futura 1
Beneficios-costes total Gestor SII Beneficios-costos para el municipio 0.7
Nivel de correspondencia de las SbN con los mapas de zonas de riesgo Eficacia del proceso de concesión de permisos para SbN 1
Nivel de correspondencia de las SbN con los mapas de zonas de riesgo Impacto operativo sobre Otros servicios 0.88
Numero y impacto de inversiones SbN particulares autorizadas Incremento de capacidad del sistema 0.6
Numero y impacto de inversiones SbN particulares autorizadas Impacto de los proyectos apruebados 0.62
Calidad del monitoreo CEs Impacto positivo sobre la calidad del agua 0.57
Calidad del monitoreo CEs Impacto positivo en la calidad del agua vertida 0.6
Impacto positivo sobre la capacidad de carga EDAR Incremento de capacidad del sistema 1
Impacto positivo sobre la capacidad de carga EDAR Beneficios-costes total EDAR Depuracion 0.63
Nivel de consenso político Indicaciones para el ajuste UWWTD 1
Impacto positivo sobre CSO Beneficios-costes total EDAR Depuracion 1
Impacto positivo sobre CSO Impacto CapEx OpEx Gestor SII 1
Impacto positivo sobre CSO Impacto CapEx OpEx EDAR Depuracion 1
Impacto positivo sobre CSO Impacto positivo en la calidad del agua vertida 1
Impacto positivo sobre CSO Impacto positivo sobre la capacidad de carga EDAR 1
Concienciación, compromiso y apoyo de los ciudadanos y las organizaciones de la sociedad civil Nivel de consenso político 0.37
Impacto CapEx OpEx EDAR Depuracion Beneficios-costes total EDAR Depuracion 0.81

Motivation of relationships

Source Concept (Cause) Target Concept (Effect) Reasoning (Why)
Beneficios-costes total EDAR Depuracion (Total Cost Benefit: WWTP) Beneficios-costos para el municipio (Municipality Cost-Benefit) The economic efficiency of the WWTP directly contributes to the overall economic benefit of the municipality.
Beneficios-costes total Gestor SII (Total Cost-Benefit: Sewer Manager) Beneficios-costos para el municipio The efficiency of the sewer infrastructure manager contributes strongly to the municipality's economic balance.
Beneficios-costos para el municipio (Municipality Cost-Benefit) Indicaciones para el ajuste UWWTD (Indications for UWWTD Adjustment) A positive economic balance is a prerequisite for defining valid adjustments to comply with the directive.
Calidad de la colaboracion interistitucional (Quality of Inter-institutional Collab) Cumplimiento con las políticas regionales y nacionales de MEDIO AMBIENTE y SALUD (Env. Policy Compliance) Strong cooperation between institutions helps ensure compliance with environmental and health policies.
Calidad de la colaboracion interistitucional Indicaciones para el ajuste UWWTD High-quality collaboration is essential to agree on how to implement UWWTD adjustments.
Calidad del monitoreo CEs (Quality of Monitoring Emerging Contaminants) Impacto positivo en la calidad del agua vertida Positive Impact: Discharged Water) Better monitoring allows better treatment management, improving effluent quality.
Calidad del monitoreo CEs Impacto positivo sobre la calidad del agua (Positive Impact: Water Quality) General water quality improves when monitoring systems are robust.
Competencia de los expertos (Expert Competence) Nivel de correspondencia de las SbN con los mapas de zonas de riesgo (SbN alignment with Risk Maps) Knowledgeable experts ensure that NBS are located correctly according to risk zones.
Concienciación... ciudadana (Citizen Awareness/Support) Nivel de consenso político (Political Consensus) Public support helps build political consensus.
Cumplimiento con las políticas ...(Policy Compliance) Nivel de cumplimiento del plan de gestión (Management Plan Compliance) Adhering to high-level policies ensures that the management plan aligns with present and future regulations.
Eficacia del proceso de permisos SbN (NBS Permitting Efficacy) Numero y impacto de inversiones SbN (No. & Impact of SbN Investments) Efficient permits help unlock private investments in NBS.
Impacto CapEx OpEx EDAR Depuracion (WWTP Operational/Capital Expenses) Beneficios-costes total EDAR Depuracion (Total Cost-Benefit: WWTP) Managing operational and capital costs is the main driver of WWTP cost-benefit performance.
Impacto CapEx OpEx Gestor SII Beneficios-costes total Gestor SII Operational costs influence the manager's cost-benefit balance.
Impacto CapEx OpEx Otros Servicios Beneficios-costos para el municipio Costs in other services also contribute to the municipality's economic equation.
Impacto de los proyectos apruebados Beneficios-costos para el municipio Approved projects provide a direct economic benefit to the municipality.
Impacto de los proyectos apruebados Incremento de capacidad del sistema Approved projects moderately increase system capacity.
Impacto operativo sobre Otros servicios Impacto CapEx OpEx Otros Servicios Operational impacts on other services drive associated financial costs.
Impacto positivo en la calidad del agua vertida Nivel de cumplimiento del plan de gestión propuesto con la normativa vigente y futura Cleaner discharged water helps the management plan meet regulatory targets.
Impacto positivo sobre CSO (Positive Impact on Sewer Overflows) Beneficios-costes total EDAR Depuracion Reducing sewer overflows strongly improves WWTP cost-benefit.
Impacto positivo sobre CSO Impacto CapEx OpEx EDAR Depuracion Reducing overflows has a maximum impact on optimizing WWTP expenses.
Impacto positivo sobre CSO Impacto CapEx OpEx Gestor SII Reducing overflows also optimizes the sewer manager's expenses.
Impacto positivo sobre CSO Impacto positivo en la calidad del agua vertida Preventing overflows is highly effective in improving discharged water quality.
Impacto positivo sobre CSO Impacto positivo sobre la capacidad de carga EDAR Preventing overflows frees significant treatment-plant capacity.
Impacto positivo sobre la calidad del agua Beneficios-costes total Gestor SII Better water quality improves the perceived value and economics of the sewer manager.
Impacto positivo sobre la capacidad de carga EDAR Beneficios-costes total EDAR Depuracion More available capacity improves plant economic efficiency.
Impacto positivo sobre la capacidad de carga EDAR Incremento de capacidad del sistema Freeing up plant load directly increases system capacity.
Importancia del tema en la agenda política (Political Agenda Importance) Calidad de la colaboracion interistitucional When the issue becomes a political priority, institutions are pushed to collaborate more effectively.
Incremento de capacidad del sistema Beneficios-costos para el municipio Higher capacity yields better economic returns for the city.
Indices de multifuncionalidad SbN (SbN Multifunctionality Indices) Beneficios-costos para el municipio Multi-purpose green solutions create economic value.
Indices de multifuncionalidad SbN Eficacia del proceso de concesión de permisos para SbN Well-defined functionality metrics make the permitting process smoother.
Nivel de consenso político Indicaciones para el ajuste UWWTD Political agreement is a requirement for finalizing UWWTD guidelines.
Nivel de correspondencia SbN con mapas (Alignment with Risk Maps) Eficacia del proceso de concesión de permisos para SbN Projects aligned with risk maps are more easily permitted.
Nivel de correspondencia SbN con mapas Impacto operativo sobre Otros servicios Proper siting of SbN affects interactions with other city services.
Nivel de cumplimiento del plan Indicaciones para el ajuste UWWTD A compliant plan is the basis for final UWWTD adjustment indications.
Numero y impacto de inversiones SbN Impacto de los proyectos apruebados More private investments increase the impact of approved projects.
Numero y impacto de inversiones SbN Incremento de capacidad del sistema These investments also contribute significantly to system capacity.
Numero y impacto de proyectos con participación ciudadana Concienciación ciudadana Participatory projects significantly raise citizen awareness and commitment.
Numero y impacto de proyectos con participación ciudadana Impacto de los proyectos apruebados Citizen participation adds value to projects.
Numero y impacto de proyectos con participación ciudadana Nivel de consenso político Successful participatory projects help build political consensus.

Initial states

Initial States Configuration #1

Entity Initial Value
Beneficios-costes total EDAR Depuracion 0.10
Beneficios-costes total Gestor SII 0.10
Beneficios-costos para el municipio 0.00
Calidad de la colaboracion interistitucional 0.70
Calidad del monitoreo CEs 0.10
Competencia de los expertos (Amplitud y especialización de los conocimientos) 0.70
Concienciación, compromiso y apoyo de los ciudadanos y las organizaciones de la sociedad civil 0.10
Cumplimiento con las políticas regionales y nacionales de MEDIO AMBIENTE y SALUD 0.70
Eficacia del proceso de concesión de permisos para SbN 0.10
Impacto CapEx OpEx EDAR Depuracion 0.10
Impacto CapEx OpEx Gestor SII 0.10
Impacto CapEx OpEx Otros Servicios 0.10
Impacto de los proyectos apruebados 0.10
Impacto operativo sobre Otros servicios 0.10
Impacto positivo en la calidad del agua vertida 0.10
Impacto positivo sobre CSO 0.10
Impacto positivo sobre la calidad del agua 0.10
Impacto positivo sobre la capacidad de carga EDAR 0.10
Importancia del tema escorrentía urbana CEs-SbN y UWWTD en la agenda política 0.10
Incremento de capacidad del sistema 0.10
Indicaciones para el ajuste UWWTD 0.10
Indices de multifuncionalidad SbN inundaciones, sequías, CEs 0.10
Nivel de consenso político 0.10
Nivel de correspondencia de las SbN con los mapas de zonas de riesgo 0.10
Nivel de cumplimiento del plan de gestión propuesto con la normativa vigente y futura 0.10
Numero y impacto de inversiones SbN particulares autorizadas 0.10
Numero y impacto de proyectos con participación directa de la ciudadanía 0.10

Simulation Results

Simulation Run #1 - Simulation Table

This table shows the evolution of state variables during the simulation.

Simulation Plot - do-nothing scenario

Because of the "artificial" initial condition, the chart comparing the initial and final states of the observable variables in a do-nothing scenario is not significant, hence not reported.

In the Santander pilot case, the initial situation was defined on the basis of the hypothesis of a provisional procedure to carry out experimental initiatives and compare the scenarios corresponding to the outcomes of the different types of initiatives envisaged.

With this in mind, the results of the ‘do-nothing’ scenario are not significant, because it would be ‘do-nothing’ starting from ‘do-something’, i.e. the adoption of provisional legislation.

Intervention Results

This section documents, in graphical and tabular form, the results of the interventions simulations.

Intervention Simulation Run #1

Intervention Details

This table shows the details of the intevention(s).

Intervention Entity Target Entity Impact Value Effectiveness
Proyecto de ciencia ciudadana para el monitoreo de CEs Calidad del monitoreo CEs 0.81 0.73
Proyecto de ciencia ciudadana para el monitoreo de CEs Indices de multifuncionalidad SbN inundaciones, sequías, CEs 0.36 0.73
Proyecto de ciencia ciudadana para el monitoreo de CEs Incremento de capacidad del sistema 0.37 0.73
Proyecto de ciencia ciudadana para el monitoreo de CEs Concienciación, compromiso y apoyo de los ciudadanos y las organizaciones de la sociedad civil 0.32 0.73
Proyecto de ciencia ciudadana para el monitoreo de CEs Indicaciones para el ajuste UWWTD 0.35 0.73
Incentivos para la construcción privada que adopta SbN en zonas críticas Numero y impacto de inversiones SbN particulares autorizadas 0.41 0.70
Incentivos para la construcción privada que adopta SbN en zonas críticas Impacto CapEx OpEx Gestor SII 0.54 0.70
Incentivos para la construcción privada que adopta SbN en zonas críticas Impacto positivo sobre la capacidad de carga EDAR 0.35 0.70
Incentivos para la construcción privada que adopta SbN en zonas críticas Impacto operativo sobre Otros servicios 0.37 0.70
Transformación de una zona verde pública en SnB asignada a los ciudadanos para su mantenimiento Concienciación, compromiso y apoyo de los ciudadanos y las organizaciones de la sociedad civil 0.41 0.69
Transformación de una zona verde pública en SnB asignada a los ciudadanos para su mantenimiento Impacto operativo sobre Otros servicios 0.22 0.69
Transformación de una zona verde pública en SnB asignada a los ciudadanos para su mantenimiento Indices de multifuncionalidad SbN inundaciones, sequías, CEs 0.23 0.69
Transformación de una zona verde pública en SnB asignada a los ciudadanos para su mantenimiento Impacto positivo sobre la capacidad de carga EDAR 0.37 0.69

Equilibrium Table

This table shows the equilibrium values of state variables at baseline and intervention(s).

Concept Baseline Proyecto de ciencia ciudadana para el monitoreo de CEs Incentivos para la construcción privada que adopta SbN en zonas críticas Transformación de una zona verde pública en SbN asignada a los ciudadanos para su mantenimiento
Beneficios-costes total EDAR Depuración 0.239 0.239 0.370 0.376
Beneficios-costes total Gestor SII 0.075 0.218 0.209 0.075
Beneficios-costos para el municipio 0.676 0.808 0.838 0.791
Calidad de la colaboración interistitucional 0.100 0.100 0.100 0.100
Calidad del monitoreo CEs 0.100 0.528 0.100 0.100
Competencia de los expertos (Amplitud y especialización de los conocimientos) 0.700 0.700 0.700 0.700
Concienciación, compromiso y apoyo de los ciudadanos y las organizaciones de la sociedad civil 0.067 0.291 0.067 0.336
Cumplimiento con las políticas regionales y nacionales de MEDIO AMBIENTE y SALUD 0.099 0.099 0.099 0.099
Eficacia del proceso de concesión de permisos para SbN 0.570 0.613 0.570 0.586
Impacto CapEx OpEx EDAR Depuración 0.100 0.100 0.100 0.100
Impacto CapEx OpEx Gestor SII 0.100 0.100 0.442 0.100
Impacto CapEx OpEx Otros Servicios 0.275 0.275 0.364 0.331
Impacto de los proyectos aprobados 0.356 0.373 0.449 0.363
Impacto operativo sobre Otros servicios 0.487 0.487 0.658 0.594
Impacto positivo en la calidad del agua vertida 0.159 0.394 0.159 0.159
Impacto positivo sobre CSO 0.100 0.100 0.100 0.100
Impacto positivo sobre la calidad del agua 0.057 0.292 0.057 0.057
Impacto positivo sobre la capacidad de carga EDAR 0.100 0.100 0.330 0.341
Importancia del tema escorrentía urbana CEs-SbN y UWWTD en la agenda política 0.100 0.100 0.100 0.100
Incremento de capacidad del sistema 0.515 0.698 0.739 0.675
Indicaciones para el ajuste UWWTD 0.783 0.931 0.839 0.853
Índices de multifuncionalidad SbN inundaciones, sequías, CEs 0.100 0.256 0.100 0.157
Nivel de consenso político 0.075 0.156 0.075 0.173
Nivel de correspondencia de las SbN con los mapas de zonas de riesgo 0.604 0.604 0.604 0.604
Nivel de cumplimiento del plan de gestión propuesto con la normativa vigente y futura 0.204 0.352 0.204 0.204
Número y impacto de inversiones SbN particulares autorizadas 0.515 0.546 0.694 0.527
Número y impacto de proyectos con participación directa de la ciudadanía 0.100 0.100 0.100 0.100

Comparison Table

This table shows the differences between the intervention(s) in relative terms (i.e., % increase or decrease) compared to the baseline.

Concept Baseline Proyecto de ciencia ciudadana para el monitoreo de CEs Incentivos para la construcción privada que adopta SbN en zonas críticas Transformación de una zona verde pública en SbN asignada a los ciudadanos para su mantenimiento
Beneficios-costes total EDAR Depuración 0.00% 0.00% 55.09% 57.52%
Beneficios-costes total Gestor SII 0.00% 190.09% 178.77% 0.00%
Beneficios-costos para el municipio 0.00% 19.65% 24.10% 17.03%
Calidad de la colaboración interistitucional 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Calidad del monitoreo CEs 0.00% 428.50% 0.00% 0.00%
Competencia de los expertos (Amplitud y especialización de los conocimientos) 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Concienciación, compromiso y apoyo de los ciudadanos y las organizaciones de la sociedad civil 0.00% 334.51% 0.00% 402.67%
Cumplimiento con las políticas regionales y nacionales de MEDIO AMBIENTE y SALUD 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Eficacia del proceso de concesión de permisos para SbN 0.00% 7.62% 0.00% 2.88%
Impacto CapEx OpEx EDAR Depuración 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Impacto CapEx OpEx Gestor SII 0.00% 0.00% 343.95% 0.00%
Impacto CapEx OpEx Otros Servicios 0.00% 0.00% 32.35% 20.50%
Impacto de los proyectos aprobados 0.00% 4.71% 25.97% 1.81%
Impacto operativo sobre Otros servicios 0.00% 0.00% 35.14% 22.00%
Impacto positivo en la calidad del agua vertida 0.00% 148.65% 0.00% 0.00%
Impacto positivo sobre CSO 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Impacto positivo sobre la calidad del agua 0.00% 413.63% 0.00% 0.00%
Impacto positivo sobre la capacidad de carga EDAR 0.00% 0.00% 231.48% 242.20%
Importancia del tema escorrentía urbana CEs-SbN y UWWTD en la agenda política 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Incremento de capacidad del sistema 0.00% 35.67% 43.59% 31.22%
Indicaciones para el ajuste UWWTD 0.00% 18.90% 7.06% 8.88%
Índices de multifuncionalidad SbN inundaciones, sequías, CEs 0.00% 155.57% 0.00% 57.38%
Nivel de consenso político 0.00% 109.43% 0.00% 131.43%
Nivel de correspondencia de las SbN con los mapas de zonas de riesgo 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Nivel de cumplimiento del plan de gestión propuesto con la normativa vigente y futura 0.00% 72.23% 0.00% 0.00%
Número y impacto de inversiones SbN particulares autorizadas 0.00% 6.05% 34.60% 2.32%
Número y impacto de proyectos con participación directa de la ciudadanía 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

Intervention Plot

This graph compares the baseline and final states of the observable variables after intervention(s).

We discuss some meaningful elements and significant changes in ourscenario resulting from the intervention we hypothesised.

The proposed measures correspond to the types of measures provided for in the temporary regulations:

  1. citizen science measures for widespread monitoring of runoff water contamination;
  2. measures to facilitate private building initiatives (new construction or major renovations) that involve the construction and management of NBS;
  3. the allocation and adaptation of a currently degraded public green area to NBS functions, assigning its management to residents' associations or other civil society organisations.

Let us recall the main observables:

  • benefit/cost ratio for the municipality
  • Indications for UWWTD adjustment
  • political consensus and support
  • increase in system capacity

Impact of interventions on key observables

Based on the simulation results, we can elaborate on the impact of each intervention on the key observables as follows.

Proyecto de ciencia ciudadana para el monitoreo de CEs Incentivos para la construcción privada que adopta SbN en zonas críticas Transformación de una zona verde pública en SnB asignada a los ciudadanos para su mantenimiento
Beneficios-costos para el municipio 19.65% 24.10% 17.03%
Indicaciones para el ajuste UWWTD 18.90% 7.06% 8.88%
Nivel de consenso político 109.43% 0.00% 131.43%
Incremento de capacidad del sistema 35.67% 43.59% 31.22%


Citizen science project for monitoring emerging contaminants comes out as a balanced approach that delivers gains across all dimensions, particularly in governance. It impacts on the Political Consensus Level, which more than doubles (+109.43%), based on the assumption that involving citizens in scientific monitoring creates a unifying force for policy. Technically, it also performs well, driving a 35.67% increase in System Capacity and improving the Municipality's Cost-Benefit ratio by 19.65%. It is the most "holistic" intervention, potentially bridging the gap between technical data collection (monitoring CEs) and social acceptance.

The strategy of incentivating for private construction adopting NBS in critical zones is the clear leader in terms of "hard" infrastructure and economic metrics but fails as a social lever. It generates the highest System Capacity increase (+43.59%) and the best Cost-Benefit improvement (+24.10%), likely because it leverages private capital to solve public infrastructure problems. However, it has no impact on Political Consensus and the lowest influence on UWWTD Adjustment Indications (+7.06%). It is a technically efficient solution that solves capacity issues without necessarily building the political capital or broad policy alignment needed for long-term changes.

Transformation of public green zones into citizen-maintained NBS. This intervention leads in social and political cohesion. It triggers a high +131.43% surge in Political Consensus, the highest of any scenario, suggesting that giving citizens direct responsibility for maintaining green infrastructure creates community buy-in. On the other hand, its technical and economic contributions are the most modest of the three, yielding a 17.03% economic benefit and a 31.22% capacity increase. Its ability to mobilize support makes it a potential tool for overcoming political gridlock, even if it is less efficient at boosting raw infrastructure capacity than private incentives.

Impact of interventions on other observables

Based on the simulation results for the other observables, we can elaborate further on the impact of each interventio as follows.

Proyecto de ciencia ciudadana para el monitoreo de CEs Incentivos para la construcción privada que adopta SbN en zonas críticas Transformación de una zona verde pública en SnB asignada a los ciudadanos para su mantenimiento
Beneficios-costes total  EDAR Depuracion 0.00% 55.09% 57.52%
Beneficios-costes total  Gestor SII 190.09% 178.77% 0.00%
Impacto CapEx OpEx EDAR Depuracion 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Impacto CapEx OpEx Gestor SII 0.00% 343.95% 0.00%
Impacto CapEx OpEx Otros Servicios 0.00% 32.35% 20.50%
Impacto positivo sobre la capacidad de carga EDAR 0.00% 231.48% 242.20%

Citizen science project for monitoring emerging contaminants acts as a wake-up call on the efficiency of the sewer network management improving the Total Cost-Benefit for the SII utility, likely by providing critical data that optimizes maintenance and operations. However, its scope is remarkably contained; it shows no impact on the Wastewater Treatment Plant (EDAR) metrics (both capacity and cost-benefit) or other municipal services. This suggests that while citizen monitoring is a powerful tool for the specific entity managing the network, it does not alleviate the physical load or economic pressures on the downstream treatment infrastructure.

Incentives for private construction adopting NBS in critical zones. This strategy is the most comprehensive infrastructure booster, influencing nearly every operational metric. It drives high positive impact on the SII utility's CapEx/OpEx along with a 178.77% improvement in their Cost-Benefit, indicating an optimization of network operations. Simultaneously, it provides significant relief to the treatment plant, increasing the Positive Impact on EDAR Load Capacity by 231.48% and boosting the plant's economic benefits by 55.09%. It is a "dual-benefit" solution that modernizes the entire chain from the sewer network to the final treatment facility.

Transformation of public green zones into citizen-maintained NBS. This intervention outperforms all other scenarios in relieving pressure on the central infrastructure, delivering the highest Positive Impact on EDAR Load Capacity (+242.20%) and the best improvement in EDAR Cost-Benefit (+57.52%). Interestingly, unlike the private incentives, it completely bypasses the intermediate sewer network manager (showing no impact on Gestor SII metrics). This suggests that public green zones act as a direct buffer for the treatment plant, managing water upstream in a way that benefits the final destination without necessarily altering the economics of the pipe network in between. 

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